tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-61233611821877336682024-03-13T21:20:31.964-07:00It Only Gets BetterWelcome to It Only Gets Better! This blog seeks to remove the disconnect between what’s interesting and important in our daily lives and the economic statistics we see on the news. I believe we can be smarter and better off by seeing economics from a new perspective – that helps us make more informed decisions and gain a better understanding of our peers. Or at least you can have a good conversation topic for your next cocktail party! Remember, It Only Gets Better.Dee Moneyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02892839688150904558noreply@blogger.comBlogger47125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6123361182187733668.post-72152616964691971682012-04-18T11:11:00.002-07:002012-04-18T11:11:27.504-07:00<!--[if !mso]>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
There’s been a lot of press lately about how young college
grads are struggling.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And they are -
especially younger grads who have seen their real earnings drop 15% over the
last decade.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
But that’s missing a big part of the story.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You see, when college grads struggle, that trickles
down to all levels of educational attainment.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
While the economy has officially been in “recovery” for
almost three years, we are still about six million jobs short of when the
recession began in 2007.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But just
because we’re short on jobs doesn’t mean the number of available workers decreased
alongside it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In fact, the opposite is
true – with natural population growth, the number of available workers across
all levels of educational attainment continued to rise, for workers aged 25 and
older.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Now we all know someone with a college degree generally
makes a more desirable job candidate than a non-degree holder – after all,
that’s the selling point of going to college (and taking on $1 trillion in
student debt).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So in the competition for
the 2.2 million jobs that have been created since the recession officially ended,
guess who loses?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Answer: <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Those without education beyond high school. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheuxo6DmUACjJLtauGccnYQLZild1E8z_uWgq24sacFsfNlLKzazDBnjnqB-1V6CZ0Y5KV7evArIgV0oNOlFM_qb9Xme_slPUBd95pkcZzBpH8hX1t3IE9IzgZZVBYhsR0qqmCqcCWp4Q/s1600/squeeze.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheuxo6DmUACjJLtauGccnYQLZild1E8z_uWgq24sacFsfNlLKzazDBnjnqB-1V6CZ0Y5KV7evArIgV0oNOlFM_qb9Xme_slPUBd95pkcZzBpH8hX1t3IE9IzgZZVBYhsR0qqmCqcCWp4Q/s320/squeeze.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-no-proof: yes;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Certainly “winning” here is loosely defined: college grads nowadays
are taking any job they can get even if it doesn’t pay well or use their degree,
hence the downward pressure on their wages.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>But non-college workers really get hammered; many drop out of the labor
force entirely as they are squeezed out of the competition for the few available
jobs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In fact, government stats show
that while the college graduate (and higher) labor force increased by 2.5
million since the recovery began, and the some college labor force increased by
0.7 million, the labor force of high school graduates shrank by 1.8 million.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And of course non-college grads make up the
bulk of those who are unemployed.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The great squeeze on non-college workers is not completely
new.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The labor participation rates of
the youngest workers without advanced education (aged 16-19 especially) have
been plummeting for some time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But the
recession exacerbated this trend, and it has only worsened in the recovery.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And the root of the problem goes deep: the
economy has failed college grads and the effect ripples all the way through,
down to the youngest and least educated workers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In our current low-innovation, consumption- driven economy,
there simply aren’t enough middle skill jobs being created to absorb the
increasing number of college grads.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And where
robust innovation is happening, notably in the communications sector, too few college
grads have the mathematical and technical skills needed.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
In other words, while some of the problems in today's job market are cyclical, there is an underlying structural problem we will eventually have to face. If we don’t generate more good jobs for
American workers, more people will come to doubt the value of a college
education, while those who don’t attend college will face even bleaker
prospects for upward mobility. That means we should strive to encourage
innovation, get those innovations to market quickly and effectively, and
expand domestic production to promote more balanced economic growth.
That would go a long way to alleviate the struggles of all workers,
college degree or not.<br />
<br />
Also at: http://progressivepolicy.org/the-great-squeeze <br />
<br />Dee Moneyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02892839688150904558noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6123361182187733668.post-33181612370301866132012-03-07T08:07:00.000-08:002012-03-07T08:07:26.349-08:00The Struggles of Kim Kardashian, Snooki, and Other Young People<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">Will young people ever get a break?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Lately, it seems like all we young people do is struggle – with money, with unfulfilling jobs – and it’s starting to take a toll on life.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All things considered, it should come as no surprise that we are spending more effort on becoming the next big reality star than on making it the old fashioned way.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Working a dead-end 9-5 job with little promotion potential that barely covers rent sounds awful compared to attending lavish parties and private island getaways.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It doesn’t take a genius to see why so many of us increasingly aspire to be like Kim K and Snooki, who seemingly live a glamorous life yet do very little.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p> </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">Sadly, we can’t all become the face of a new perfume or have our own line of designer headphones.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So, our best option is to figure out why the uphill battle to pay our bills is getting worse and fix it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">Older Americans believe our struggles stem from a </span><a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/02/adulthood-delayed-what-has-the-recession-done-to-millennials/252913/"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">lack of ambition</span></a><span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">, that we have gotten lazy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But it’s difficult to find motivation when it seems there is little reward for hard work.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And the shrinking reward is well documented – in the form of lower earnings (down 3% over the last decade for full-time workers aged 18-34, in constant dollars) and higher unemployment rates (16.8% for ages 16-24; 9.8% for ages 25-34), which has saddled us with a massive </span><a href="http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/college/story/2011-10-19/student-loan-debt/50818676/1"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">$1 trillion in student debt</span></a><span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">But older Americans have it backwards.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We did not randomly decide to become lazy and accrue debt.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What they see as lost ambition is our discouragement from lost opportunities for success. Right as more of us are investing in higher education and </span><a href="http://www.bls.gov/news.release/hsgec.nr0.htm"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">going to college</span></a><span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">, the jobs being created for us to fill overwhelmingly require only a high school degree or less.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And it’s not getting better.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, over the next decade almost 7 out of 10 new or replacement jobs in the economy will not need a college education, the same share as jobs in the economy today.</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-no-proof: yes;"><v:shapetype coordsize="21600,21600" filled="f" id="_x0000_t75" o:preferrelative="t" o:spt="75" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" stroked="f"> <v:stroke joinstyle="miter"> <v:formulas> <v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"> <v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0"> <v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"> <v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2"> <v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"> <v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"> <v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"> <v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2"> <v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"> <v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"> <v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"> <v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"> </v:f></v:f></v:f></v:f></v:f></v:f></v:f></v:f></v:f></v:f></v:f></v:f></v:formulas> <v:path gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect" o:extrusionok="f"> <o:lock aspectratio="t" v:ext="edit"> </o:lock></v:path></v:stroke></v:shapetype></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">That means we are all feeling the strain as more as us compete for a smaller share of middle- and high-skill jobs, the jobs that pay a decent salary. Even Kim K and Snooki feel the strain, struggling to compete.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We constantly see these reality stars forced to up the ante (or “work” in their terms) to stay relevant, with attention grabbing headlines like a 72 day marriage and a reported pregnancy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>After all, there are many <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Bachelorettes</i>, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Real Housewives</i>, and <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Teen Moms</i> vying for their jobs. Their antics make sense in this regard – what are their alternatives if they let the spotlight get away? They almost certainly would have to take a pay cut as their technical skills are questionable. It’s a tough world out there. Obtaining the skills our parents had won’t </span><a href="http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2012/02/09/young-underemployed-and-optimistic/1/"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">take the cake anymore</span></a><span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">, let alone guarantee a slice.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">Recent college grads are among the worst affected.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Sure, those of us with college degrees </span><a href="http://www.bls.gov/news.release/nlsyth.nr0.htm"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">are more likely to find work</span></a><span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;"> than non-graduates. But too many of us are working jobs that do not use our degree or brain power.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Too many of us are accepting jobs that we could do with a high school diploma, and our salary shows. College grads aged 18-34 with full-time jobs saw a 14% drop in earnings since 2000 (in constant dollars).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And for the few high-skill jobs that are out there, those with standard issue liberal arts degrees need not apply.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That’s not encouraging for the </span><a href="http://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator_fsu.asp"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">1.6 million college graduates</span></a><span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;"> in 2009, of which just 5 percent of had a degree in engineering.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>More studied visual and performing arts.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">Indeed, too many of us feel like we might have more success making an explicit video or participating in a drunken escapade on the beach and getting arrested.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Just ask Judge Judy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Or Maury.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">But not going to college could be even worse. If college grads are taking the best of the non-degree jobs, then those of us without a college degree are essentially squeezed out to worse jobs (or no job), and almost certainly will take a pay cut to compete.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We are thus forced to choose between two evils, with college winning for the wrong reasons. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">What happened to the mid-level job market?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Look no further than the economy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The economy – more specifically, the value we contribute to the economy, has relied too heavily on spending and borrowing over the last decade.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The reality is we have an economy driven by debt fueled consumption instead of investment and innovation (brain power). As a result the majority of today’s jobs are in areas like retail and heavily subsidized healthcare.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">Should that mean we should surrender to our fate, live with our parents forever, and allow Judge Judy be the most intellectual time of the day?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Of course not.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It just means we have to take matters into our own hands instead of spending our time trying to become the next Kim K or Snooki.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">To increase the number of opportunities, the number of high-wage, high-skill jobs, we must make better use of our increasing education.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The fact is we can’t earn more than the value we create, and the only way to create more value is through innovation, through developing the next line of goods and services that will enhance our competitiveness. Higher education is the only way to sharpen our skills and develop our human capital; it has always led the way to lower unemployment and </span><a href="http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_chart_001.htm"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">higher earnings</span></a><span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">Instead of getting frustrated at the lack of opportunities, putting aside our ambitions and accepting a future where our quality of life is worse than our parents’, let’s step up to the challenge.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Let’s accept being globally competitive is a constant struggle: we will never stop having to work for it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We have to throw away our false expectations that we are owed a good life without adding value to the economy. Singer Flo Rida talks of his ambition to be the next billionaire in “Good Feeling”, but his only qualification appears to be that his “mama knew he was a needle in a hay stack.” That’s not going to cut it. It never did.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">Hopefully we can get excited at the prospect of earning enough to pay for rent and a private island getaway without winning <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">American Idol</i>, excited at the prospect of working at a job that uses our brains and skills.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We can get there, we have the potential. But, in the words of singer Ciara, we are going to have to “work, work, work, work.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And there is some encouragement out there.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Already the labor market showed signs of </span><a href="http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.b.htm"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">thawing</span></a><span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;"> over the last few months, in sectors outside of retail.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">We may not be the next Kim K or Snooki.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But we need to be in a world where that’s still okay, where we know we can be successful with hard work, motivation, and good ideas.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Let’s recapture lost opportunities, make new ones, and make an act two that even Clint Eastwood can be proud of.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">(BLS)</span>Dee Moneyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02892839688150904558noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6123361182187733668.post-48527003691032455082012-01-12T19:45:00.000-08:002012-01-12T19:48:20.620-08:00A Simple Misunderstanding<div style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">Happy New Year! It’s only been less than 2 weeks but 2012 is already a very important year for Americans. First, Beyonce and Jay-Z, a couple with influence matching the Pope, had a baby. This will never stop being a news story. Second, we realized that the presidential primary debate season may just be one of the best shows currently on TV. This genius program runs like “Survivor” contestants are tested for being “Smarter Than a Fifth Grader” and voted off as if it were “Celebrity Apprentice.” So far this year, Michelle Bachmann got voted off Republican Island in a cruel Iowan twist, and Ron Paul claims to read economic textbooks on Saturday nights. Third, but no less important, we got to watch Kim K realize that if she can have fun without her husband then maybe she shouldn’t be married (sorry, this is considered a major news story). At this rate, we can expect a banner year all around, maybe even complete with a Paris Hilton comeback on <i>DWTS</i>. (You heard the big prediction here first.)<br />
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Americans have had a lot of time on their hands over the last few years to concoct such great TV ideas. We’ve been out of work or underworked, and needed a break from our own realities. We want to see other people who are bigger idiots than we are, or in a worse predicament than we are, because it makes us feel better. We want to see people just like us, getting their problems with food, clothes, and hoarding solved so we can think about how to improve our lives. And then we sprinkle in some motivational programming, like <i>Keeping Up With the Kardashians</i>, because it makes us think about getting off the couch to see if we can get in on that golden ticket. Coupled with countless talent competitions where “anyone” can win fame overnight, and we are optimistic that we’ll find better fortunes in no time (we hope we win Deal or No Deal but a job will suffice too). <br />
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This year we can expect more quality programming as we bide our time. Just as many people (not as intellectual as ourselves) misunderstand our TV show preferences, so too do they misunderstand the most recent jobs numbers. Last Friday’s jobs report claimed that the economy added 200,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate falling to 8.5%, the lowest in almost 3 years. Of course this piece of information was received with a sigh of relief. Job gains, until now barely having a pulse, are finally catching up with the rest of the ongoing economic recovery. Finally we are out of the clear for a double-dip recession.<br />
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Not to be a party-pooper, but uncovering the numbers just one layer shows the story really hasn’t improved. It turns out almost half of the new jobs added in December where seasonal. These “jobs” were in retail and transportation (think Fed-Ex and UPS), are low-wage, and likely will not last through January. Subtract those 90,000 seasonal jobs from the total and we are right back to where we’ve been for more or less the last 7 months, adding roughly 100,000 to 115,000 jobs. This pops the party balloon: the number of new jobs is still not enough to sustain economic recovery. Worse, the numbers show unemployment is lower partially because fewer people are entering the labor force. The working age population grew by 0.8% in the last year while the labor force participation rate fell 0.3%; presumably they wanted to watch some good old American TV programming instead of bothering with jobs.<br />
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At least we’ll have plenty of time to live the “American Dream” in our dreams. So get your foreign-made TV, sit on your foreign-made couch, wear your foreign-made clothes and relax. Forget about understanding why we don’t have enough American jobs, and why real wages are falling, that makes our brains hurt. Sit back and enjoy the show.</div><div style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br />
</div><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">(Bureau of Labor Statistics) </span>Dee Moneyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02892839688150904558noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6123361182187733668.post-6119883353443494392011-11-21T21:00:00.000-08:002011-11-21T21:01:45.407-08:00Gobble Gobble<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">November is coming and going faster than Kim Kardashian’s marriage (sorry, had to go there). It’s coming and going faster than Lindsay Lohan’s jail time (4 hours for a 30 day sentence, blink and you missed it). But don’t worry if you missed these great cultural events, another opportunity to hem and haw over marriages and prison sentences for these fine citizens will be here soon enough. They haven’t let us down so far! And just as fast: Thanksgiving and Christmas will be here again. Apparently, according to retailers, Thanksgiving already came and went and we’ve already moved on to Christmas. If retailers had it there way, Christmas would be a year-round celebration (and for some, it is!).</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">And if Christmas was year round? We would oblige. We love this time of year, although “the most wonderful time of year” gets awarded to back to school, a retailer designated holiday in early September (Labor Day wasn’t cutting it). We love any excuse to celebrate and are always preparing for the next event. Thanks to Halloween, retail sales in October were up 0.5% over September. Year over year, sales are up over 7% - well done America. And in other helpful news, as we ramp up for the big 3 (Thanksgiving-Hanukah-<wbr></wbr>Christmas), the prices we paid for stuff in October – not including food and energy – remained relatively flat (up 0.1% over September, and up a mild 2.1% over last year). Extra stocking stuffers for everyone!</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">If only food and energy prices could get the message and shape up. After all, Thanksgiving is a time to feast on Turkey, Ham, potatoes, cranberry, stuffing, biscuits, pumpkin pie, and whatever else can fit on the table. Food is the centerpiece of this holiday. Yet prices on food are up almost 5% over last year (that’s not something to be very thankful for). Worse, digging in to individual food prices, we find some numbers that might just give us indigestion.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">After a three year hiatus on increases in the cost of our Thanksgiving dinner, prices of some important feasting necessities have taken a considerable hike. Turkey prices are up 10% over last year, canned fruits and vegetables are up 7%, and biscuits and rolls are up 11%. Worse, potato prices are up 36% over last year. Dessert isn’t looking much better: cakes and cookie prices are up 11% while pies, tarts and turnover prices jumped by 13% last year. Hopefully we didn’t go so overboard for Halloween that our Thanksgiving feast will not require breaking the piggy bank.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">A word of advice: if traveling to another household for the big dinner, offer to bring a bottle of wine or some beer. Not only will your hosts be happy to drown their sorry grocery bill away, but you will come out ahead. Why? Because the savvy consumer you are knew that while food prices skyrocketed, alcohol prices were the only ingredient of the feast that remained relatively flat (not even up by 1%). Now that’s something to be thankful for. Happy Thanksgiving!</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">(Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics)</span></span></div>Dee Moneyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02892839688150904558noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6123361182187733668.post-14961485412711115432011-11-01T08:40:00.000-07:002011-11-01T08:40:22.923-07:00That is “Scary”<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Boo!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Okay, that didn’t scare you.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But hopefully you got your fright on this Halloween – be it haunted houses, creepy costumes, creepy people, or just watching Scream.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That Northeastern snowstorm was pretty scary – the movie “The Day After Tomorrow” comes to mind.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Global warming be damned.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Apparently everything around us is just now suddenly “scary”: the news is running stories about the “scary” economy, “scary” houses (though that should be saved for the “scary” drop in home prices), and even “scary” celebrity Halloween costumes (Heidi Klum has outdone herself yet again, what a “scary” surprise).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If we believed everything we saw and read, we would be right to stay inside, lock our doors, and hope November is a little less “scary”.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">But that’s not how we roll.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Good for you for not letting the attempts to spook you get you down.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We went out in full force for Halloween, witches, pirates, “slutty” pumpkins (or anything really) and all.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We may have even outdone ourselves, which is impressive considering last year’s numbers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>According to some fun (yes, fun) statistics, last Halloween there were 41 million trick-or-treaters covering 116.7 million eligible trick-or-treating stops (homes).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And we love getting into the seasonal spirit: last year we ate an average of 24.7 pounds of candy per person (during the course of the year) and pumpkin production totaled 1.1 billion pounds!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We are serious – go big or go home (and lock your doors).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Certainly we aren’t going to let the economic naysayers tell us what to do either.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In what turned out to be fairly good news in econoworld last week, our economic output increased in July-August-September by 2.5% over the previous 3 month period, after very weak gains earlier in the year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While still quite lackluster compared to other post-recession “recoveries”, this news was good in that our output – after adjusting for prices –finally passed pre-recession levels (yes, it actually took this long).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You have yourselves to thank: consumer spending led the growth spurt (hey, we have a lot of candy to consume this year).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Congratulations, the economy is growing again.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s easy to conclude our wallets will soon join our stomachs in the happy parade.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Not to be a debbie-downer (or a villain, or goblin, or whatever name Halloween gives this role), but this might be a bit optimistic.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Growth fueled by our consumption, given the reality of our finances, really isn’t sustainable long-term.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On Friday, other data showed our spending in September was up and away: after adjusting for prices, our spending was up 0.5%.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Meanwhile, for the third month in a row, our “real” spending money (disposable income after adjusting for prices) was negative – our available funds are decreasing!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Where is this spending money coming from?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If we aren’t making it, we are borrowing it from somewhere.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For many of us, it’s our savings.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In a worrisome trend, savings continued to dwindle away, down $60 billion in September, to $419 billion, just 3.6% of our income.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Last year we had almost $600 billion in savings.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Low savings, high spending, and high debt is a risky combination.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We’ve been using this formula for a long time, but it also dug the big economic hole we can’t seem to fully get out of.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If anything is going to “scare” us this year, that seems as good (if not better) a candidate as anything else.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Boo!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div><span style="font-family: "Calibri", "sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">(Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis)</span>Dee Moneyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02892839688150904558noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6123361182187733668.post-33339821363121623342011-10-22T09:53:00.000-07:002011-10-22T09:54:05.631-07:00You Raise Me Up<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Halloween marks the starting line of the great annual holiday race.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>First Halloween, then Thanksgiving, followed by a big a religious Holiday of some sort (yes, Christmas is actually a religious holiday), and ending with New Year’s.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That is a lot of festive celebrating in over a 2 month period.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Fortunately, celebrating things is usually fun.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We get to see family and friends, eat lots of delicious (but not nutritious) food, and hopefully get some presents.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Some of us might even have a birthday celebration squeezed in there, bonus points (unless you’re too close to Christmas to make it a separate event, then you get minus points).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span></span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">The unfortunate part of the holiday season is that someone has to pay for it: you.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All of us are stuck with paying for part of the bill.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And while retailers (the entire economy, really) rely on the holidays for a large part of their financial success, we are constrained by what we earn (assuming we spend responsibly). <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That seems to be a problem for many of us, who aren’t seeing much in the way of raises, especially while we are seeing increases in prices that continue to shrink the value of every dollar we make.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>According to data released Thursday, our average weekly earnings went up by 1.8% over the last year, to $753 per week, yet the prices we pay for stuff increased by almost 4%.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So, in “real” terms, our wages have gone down over the last year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That is not exactly setting the mood for the upcoming celebrations.</span><br />
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">For those of us daring to be bold, or getting our annual performance reviews, now is the time to be brave and ask for a meatier raise.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>How much should we be getting?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Certainly it varies by occupation, industry, and which part of the country you are in.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Another factor is your educational attainment.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Take a look at the national average wage by educational attainment (median means 50% of people make above this amount; 50% make less).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Where do you fit in?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For the record, 54% of us have a high school diploma or an associate’s degree.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Average (Median) Weekly Earnings by Educational Attainment (3Q, 2011)</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCZJ1BgonxtuP76osM4P1jBFjswYAJLDDFA9wVFyG3_YDR1C-3g3jENSRt_E48sWpMdBHc0M2h_gR0oSo5NvbKE5lmden9Qk4VTq322g2tJDcaI07Bvc22afRPr1gD1CRaTkiIs3JFuus/s1600/pic1.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="146" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCZJ1BgonxtuP76osM4P1jBFjswYAJLDDFA9wVFyG3_YDR1C-3g3jENSRt_E48sWpMdBHc0M2h_gR0oSo5NvbKE5lmden9Qk4VTq322g2tJDcaI07Bvc22afRPr1gD1CRaTkiIs3JFuus/s400/pic1.png" width="400" /></a></div><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Now think about our average wages in terms of the cost of the new iPhone 4S, which was apparently oversubscribed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These phones start at $199 dollars, plus all of the monthly connection fees, internet usage, and apps that go along with it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The cost of the phone by itself is 26% of an American’s average weekly earnings.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And we aren’t about to give up our lifelines to today’s information economy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Yet we haven’t even touched food, rent, utilities, healthcare, or gas (which, at the current average of $3.47 per gallon can easily cost over $50 for a tank).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s hard not to notice how much a pint of ice cream, or a box of cereal, costs these days.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A bag of potato chips can easily reach $5.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At this rate something’s got to give.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hopefully for you it’s your salary – and a big increase at that.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Tell your boss that you deserve to be compensated among your peers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Or that you would like your company to pay for classes, so you can climb the ladder of educational attainment (you would like to “be the best you can be”).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>More compelling, tell your boss that you are losing money if your wages do not keep up with basic inflation (cost of living).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If we can’t afford to buy the stuff we make, then who is going to fill that role?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(What is an “export” anyway?)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It could ruin the foundation of our economic well-being (over-spending has nothing to do with it).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Yes, it’s true that as employer’s costs go up, prices go up and we’re back to where we started in terms of purchasing power.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But at least our fixed debt will go down in real terms, very good for our mortgages.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Now is the time to make your case.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Good luck!</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">(Bureau of Labor Statistics, Energy Information Administration)</span></div>Dee Moneyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02892839688150904558noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6123361182187733668.post-17660321004818517262011-10-17T21:15:00.000-07:002011-10-17T21:15:19.703-07:00And We're Back<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">The last month has been quite the whirlwind: Oktoberfest, Oktoberfest, Oktoberfest, and of course “Kim's Fairytale Wedding: A Kardashian Event.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Not even Teresa Guidice from Real Housewives of New Jersey could compete with her sister-in-law hating antics (sorry, it was a nice try, but the table flip was better).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A special congratulations to Kim is in order for reaching the epic Paris Hilton status, what a prize.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>How does she do it?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The first thought that comes to mind is clearly how hard she works for what she has.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Just look at the wedding, how much time she needed to spend “looking her best” with so many people watching!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All that make-up!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is a tough job, but someone has to do it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Or do they?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">We’ve had a lot of time to appreciate Kim K’s (or any “K’s”) societal contribution lately.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Kardashian wedding special is so pervasive you can run but you can’t hide: it’s always on.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We’ve been forced to watch it so many times we might actually decide it’s worth an Emmy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s getting about as much press as Prince William’s wedding, except there is one minor (unimportant, really) difference: he is likely going to be the next King of England.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The bad news is the next (and ultimate) step will be for her to go to jail.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Everyone’s footsteps she is following has taken a turn in the slammer: Paris, Lindsay, and Nicole have all donned the stylish orange suit.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It will be a full circle, from sex tape (remember Ray J?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>remember “One Night in Paris”?) to jail.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>She’ll join good company, from Michael Vick and Plaxico Burress to rappers TI and Lil’ Wayne to Charlie Sheen.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But don’t worry; if past trends are anything, she will make it through and make even more money for it.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Given reality TV is probably never going away, and given the lot of people given their own shows, we can’t help but wonder why we don’t have our own show already.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Why be “unemployed” when you can do no work and get paid?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Slowly jobs are coming back, in September the economy added 103,000 jobs, with revised job gains totaling 184,000 in July and August.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Employment in “Information,” where TV and movie broadcasting jobs live (where TV and movie “stars” live), increased by 34,000 jobs in September (mostly due to 45,000 striking telecom workers returning to work, but we’ll choose to ignore that).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While these aren’t tremendous gains (unemployment stayed above 9% - that’s quite high), we’ve all got to start somewhere right?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If they can do it, so can we!<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">If reality “stars” can be famous by having cameras follow them shopping, so can we.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We certainly know how to shop til we drop.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We spend money regardless of whether we should or shouldn’t be (aren’t credit cards great?).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Retail sales in September were up 1.1% over August, exceeding expectations of a 0.8% increase (go us), while our spending money after adjusting for prices (“real disposable income”) decreased by a combined 0.5% in July and August.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Relax, we’re not pulling a Teresa Guidice who actually went bankrupt from over-spending.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We are just pulling from our savings, down $30 billion in August.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We are destined for stardom, who needs savings anyway?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s not like this attitude got us into this economic mess.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Not creating value to the economy and spending money like we are?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Oh, wait.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Before we forget our reality dreams, maybe we should consider adding the next dimension: going global.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Maybe we can “trade” each of the three main Kardashian sisters as an honorary gesture to commemorate each of the three recently passed Free Trade Agreements (of course with Kim going to South Korea because that’s the most publicized agreement) and let other countries finance what makes us so interesting.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In return, these countries can have the best of America in their backyard.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Reality TV pushing the final frontier.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Now that’s a prize we can take to the bank.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">(Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis)<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>Dee Moneyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02892839688150904558noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6123361182187733668.post-342727462506686092011-09-18T16:31:00.000-07:002011-10-02T18:51:59.910-07:00And the Winner is...<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Tonight are the Primetime Emmy’s (definitely not to be confused with Daytime). The who’s who of TV will be out in force, and Jane Lynch is hosting. Isn’t she great (maybe even greater than last year’s Jimmy Fallon). But the real question of the night (aside from who’s going to win) is who are they going to be wearing? The dress! The shoes! The jewels! The hair! Even men are scrutinized, although unknown spouses seem to catch a break. For those of us who (so sadly) missed the VMAs last month we are hoping to redeem ourselves with this not to be missed TV event. We can only hope Kayne will be there, or that we somehow get our fill of shock with a Kayne-esque event. Something has to keep our attention besides shiny dresses and pretty people. We are committing 3 hours (plus red carpet time) to this and we do not want to be disappointed.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">As with life, there are winners and losers. The Emmy’s have a particularly ugly ratio of 4 losers for every winner, dangerous territory. Hopefully you are a winner, or at least can count on winning more than once every 5 tries (poor Susan Lucci, it took her 19 tries). You may have noticed that life has been giving us lemons lately, while the lemonade (or cherries a la Louis Vuitton) seem to be overseas. Anyone frequenting designer boutiques may have noticed the clientele is more non-Americans than Americans. Running the numbers, it wouldn’t be the least bit surprising to learn that people in China are spending more on Louis Vuitton, Gucci, and Chanel than we are. Data released Wednesday showed American’s retail spending was flat in August, lower than expected. The fact is demand is so high from non-Americans designers are raising prices in America and Europe to keep up with the prices in Asia. Stores are designing their business development plans around their new clients: non-Americans. Meanwhile we are worried about where next month’s rent is coming from, and what’s going to happen when our unemployment benefits expire.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">What’s going on America? Are we letting other people get ahead because we’re too busy watching Snooki and Kim K’s every move? (What about that wedding, huh?) Of course we can’t also forget the “Real” Housewives, because certainly when you think “winner” they come to mind. Seriously, though, we need to take stock. Here’s what’s happened this week: The Federal Reserve’s New York and Philadelphia surveys for September reveal large pessimism (coming in at -9 and -17 respectively) from the business community on current sales and future business, which affects hiring levels over the coming months. Meanwhile, even with the economy in a continued delicate state, consumer prices are on the rise more than we would like. Data released Thursday shows the prices we pay (“Consumer Price Index”) rose by 0.4% in August, and by 3.8% year over year. The target rate of inflation in 2%; higher prices eats into our purchasing power and quality of life. You might think there is no time like the present to focus on being a winner, or not letting our winning status get taken away. Why watch everyone else wear the jewels instead of working to be able to actually afford them ourselves?</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">But that will have to wait. Right now the Emmy’s are on. Then we need to be on tap tomorrow for more excitement from the Emmy’s – didn’t you know it only gets better? Tomorrow night Joan Rivers and her Fashion Police crew will break it down in excruciating detail in case you missed it, or just want to re-live the moment. Even Fashion Police knows how to win by going overseas and is complete with a fantastic import from Britain (Kelly Osborne). </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">(Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics)<o:p></o:p></span>Dee Moneyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02892839688150904558noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6123361182187733668.post-21223411478030480262011-09-05T08:06:00.000-07:002011-09-05T08:06:01.457-07:00Don't Worry, Be "Unstoppable"<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:OfficeDocumentSettings> <o:RelyOnVML/> <o:AllowPNG/> </o:OfficeDocumentSettings> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:TrackMoves/> <w:TrackFormatting/> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:DoNotPromoteQF/> <w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther> <w:LidThemeAsian>X-NONE</w:LidThemeAsian> <w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w:DontGrowAutofit/> <w:SplitPgBreakAndParaMark/> <w:EnableOpenTypeKerning/> <w:DontFlipMirrorIndents/> <w:OverrideTableStyleHps/> </w:Compatibility> <m:mathPr> <m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/> <m:brkBin m:val="before"/> <m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/> <m:smallFrac m:val="off"/> <m:dispDef/> <m:lMargin m:val="0"/> <m:rMargin m:val="0"/> <m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/> <m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/> <m:intLim m:val="subSup"/> <m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/> </m:mathPr></w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" DefUnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span>Aren’t you a good friend: your best buddy calls you right in the middle of HBO’s “Unstoppable” back-to-back marathon (right when they put the locomotive in reverse) and you took the call.<span> </span>Why? They were upset, and apparently airing their troubles on Facebook just wasn’t cutting it (they only got 400 comments).<span> </span>They needed the prize: you (aren’t you awesome).<span> </span>Even though you were hoping to get at least three showings of “Unstoppable” in today, you put the final viewing aside for your friend (did you mention it was right when Chris Pine and Denzel go after the 777?).</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br />
</div><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span>Your friend seems seriously depressed, when they are usually happy.<span> </span>Quickly your “unstoppable” mood is in danger of stopping:<span> </span>they tell you they lost their job and have relationship problems.<span> </span>All they need is money issues and they’ll have the perfect trifecta (luckily you aren’t the one to bring that thought into the conversation).<span> </span>They worry money problems will come next and fear they will never find a new job “with things being the way they are.”<span> </span></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br />
</div><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span>The good (no, awesome) friend you are, you do some quick research online to see “how things are.”<span> </span>You see that the jobs numbers released on Friday show why your friend is pessimistic – when subtracting loses from gains, the economy added no jobs (that’s zero) in August and the unemployment rate remains unchanged at 9.1%.<span> </span>The private sector only added 17,000 jobs (much less than what is needed to keep up with population growth let alone reintegrate the unemployed back into the work force) after downward revisions to jobs totals for July and June.<span> </span>But then you see a bright spot to quickly bring to their attention.<span> </span>Your friend chose their career wisely by working in healthcare.<span> </span>You tell them not to despair as they should have an easier time finding employment than other people because, relatively speaking, healthcare jobs have been increasing like gangbusters this year.<span> </span>Even as most other industries are holding constant or shedding jobs, healthcare added 35,500 jobs in August.<span> </span>Keep looking and they will find something before they know it.<span> </span>The numbers are in their favor all around.<span> </span>Thank goodness for the booming population of old people, it is job security for life.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br />
</div><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span>You then proceed to problem #2: it appears your friend was dumped (a.k.a. “taking a break” that wasn’t their idea).<span> </span>Relationship problems are not usually fun, unless you enjoy being unhappy.<span> </span>Your internet research also reveals that, in apparently more great economic news, consumer confidence in August was at a 2-year low.<span> </span>Last week consumer confidence for August measured in at “44.5”, dropping by almost 15 points from July, meaning we (the public) believe the economy is in another downturn (not good, we need a measure of “50” or above to indicate economic growth).<span> </span>No wonder your friend is depressed.<span> </span>You tell them it’s not them, it’s everyone.<span> </span>We are all feeling a little pessimistic these days and they too can become “unstoppable” if they detach their locomotive from the rest of the train (yes, you like the movie that much).<span> </span>Take a long weekend somewhere (their schedule just cleared) and hang out with some quality friends (like you). <span> </span>You assure them they’ll feel better in no time.<span> </span>Plus, bright side, the expectations component of the measure, while also at a 2-year low, came in at “51.9” which still indicates positive expectations ahead (barely, but you leave that part out).</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br />
</div><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">You tell them there is always a bright side: now your friend can take some time to clear their head and search for a job they actually would like, and maybe even meet someone worth their while (you never liked their significant other anyway).<span> </span>And, added bonus, they can take the time to enjoy what's important, like the new season of reality delights including "H8rs" where people confront the reality celebrities they "h8" like Snooki and Kim K (what genius).<span> </span>They can think about such important questions like “I h8 people, how can I get paid to act it out?” or “who will take Maury’s place when he is too old to read DNA results?”<span> </span><span> </span>Maybe during a 10 hour back to back Hoarders marathon your friend will come up with the next big thing that all households must buy.<span> </span>Maybe they could start an (educational but fun) blog!</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br />
</div><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 115%;">(Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Conference Board)</span></span>Dee Moneyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02892839688150904558noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6123361182187733668.post-469182442973501812011-08-29T18:57:00.000-07:002011-08-29T18:57:39.862-07:00Yay for Earthquakes and Hurricanes<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:OfficeDocumentSettings> <o:RelyOnVML/> <o:AllowPNG/> </o:OfficeDocumentSettings> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:TrackMoves/> <w:TrackFormatting/> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:DoNotPromoteQF/> <w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther> <w:LidThemeAsian>X-NONE</w:LidThemeAsian> <w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w:DontGrowAutofit/> <w:SplitPgBreakAndParaMark/> <w:EnableOpenTypeKerning/> <w:DontFlipMirrorIndents/> <w:OverrideTableStyleHps/> </w:Compatibility> <m:mathPr> <m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/> <m:brkBin m:val="before"/> <m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/> <m:smallFrac m:val="off"/> <m:dispDef/> <m:lMargin m:val="0"/> <m:rMargin m:val="0"/> <m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/> <m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/> <m:intLim m:val="subSup"/> <m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/> </m:mathPr></w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" DefUnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span>Aren’t earthquakes and hurricanes great (so great that maybe there is no way they can "only get better")?<span> </span>For one, they are an amazing excuse to not get your work done.<span> </span>How could you possibly be expected to come into work when you were stuck in an earthquake, hurricane, or other natural disaster.<span> </span>(Bonus points for being stuck in one of each in the same week).<span> </span>Natural disasters put “my dog ate my homework” to shame.<span> </span>Not only do such events get you out of work, but they even can get you the day off – and you get paid to sit home without taking any leave!<span> </span> Not even Federal holidays are guilt-free stay-at-home-and-do-nothing days.<span> </span>Almost always someone insists on celebrating something, which usually involves you having to take a shower, get dressed, and talk for an hour with your awkward cousin while trying to watch the game over their shoulder.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br />
</div><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span>Another great thing about earthquakes and hurricanes: they are equivalent to stimulus packages without the need to wait for them to get passed in Congress (nobody can argue with spending and investment resulting from natural weather events).<span> </span><span> </span>The businesses responsible for producing the goods and services we rely on are not having as good a summer as we are (they should have invested in beach week).<span> </span>But these companies are important for our country’s economic well-being (not to mention our wallet’s well-being).<span> </span>If companies aren’t producing stuff, or making money, then they can’t afford to pay us.<span> </span>If they can’t pay us, then we can’t buy their stuff, so less is produced and the cycle continues.<span> </span>In this ugly scenario, our future Christmas and summer getaways could be in jeopardy.<span> </span></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br />
</div><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span>As mentioned in the previous posting of this blog, manufacturers in the NY and Philly area are not anticipating a good August.<span> </span>To echo this sentiment around other regions of the country, an index released today indicates Dallas area manufacturers were quite pessimistic about business in August, with a measure of -11.4 compared to -2 in July (anything below “0” indicates business is decreasing).<span> </span>Last week, a measure of Richmond area business conditions also deteriorated in August, coming in at -10 compared to -1 in July.<span> </span>Only Kansas reported positive growth in August (at a no-change over July’s “3”).<span> </span>At least the need for infrastructure improvements and relief supplies resulting from natural disasters can increase demand for U.S. manufacturers (good for business).<span> </span></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br />
</div><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span>Natural disasters can also boost the economy through “induced” spending (we need water and flashlights, and 100 each thank you).<span> </span>The spending coming out of natural disasters will help the already big boost you spenders put into the economy in July (didn’t you treat yourself to a nice summer).<span> </span>Data released today shows consumers like you increased spending by 0.8% in July over June, after seeing a 0.2% decrease in spending in June over May.<span> </span>But taking a closer look shows “real” disposable income, our spending money after adjusting for price increases, declined by 0.1%.<span> </span>A decline in available funds may have led to a more modest spending future (and economic growth), but thanks to our earthquake and hurricane, spending may have been induced that would not have been otherwise.<span> </span>Did you say you only had one pack each of A, AA, AAA, C, and D batteries? Uh-oh.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br />
</div><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span>You may now be thinking that natural “disasters” seems a little harsh to describe these naturally occurring metrological events.<span> </span>What if we called them natural “stimulators” instead, after the economic bump they provide (that's PR genius, right)?<span> </span>Okay, surely earthquakes and hurricanes aren’t all rosy.<span> </span>No other stimulus package can cause such widespread destruction to the stuff we already worked hard to get.<span> </span>But as with most negative things, at least there is some silver lining, however thin. </span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span><br />
</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal"><span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">(The Federal Reserve, Bureau of Economic Analysis) </span></span></span></div>Dee Moneyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02892839688150904558noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6123361182187733668.post-1881061502323552522011-08-19T11:00:00.000-07:002011-08-19T11:00:53.398-07:00Blame Shifting<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Something we are all experts in: blame shifting (don’t deny it). There are arguments we all have where we can’t understand why the offending party doesn’t stop, take a step back, and finally realize that you did nothing wrong and they are being offensive. Even if you are obviously at fault (the horror) you try to think of every possibility that would not force you to admit guilt. Some of us could make a profession out of it (it’s never <i>your</i> fault, how could it be, you’re perfect in every way). Somehow not one, but TWO of Charlie Sheen’s cars ended up off a cliff into the woods (definitely wasn’t his fault, aliens did it). Then he’s on drugs and his teeth fall out, goes crazy on twitter, but it’s his boss’s fault he got fired (<i>technically</i> his boss did fire him – but clearly for no good reason).</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">There is a lot of blame shifting going around the economy these days. The interesting part is how we can see the shifting down the line in economic statistics and stops with us, the consumer. Take prices. Data released yesterday shows consumer prices are up by 3.6% over last year, which eats into how much stuff we can buy (thank goodness clothes with holes in them are actually in style). Why? Because producer prices, the prices producers pay to make the stuff we buy, are up. Data released Wednesday shows producer prices increased by 7.2% over last year in July (and by 2.5% excluding food and energy). Why? Because producers use a significant amount of foreign made inputs in their production of said stuff (we don’t know exactly how much but some estimates are around 20%). And on Tuesday data released showed import prices increased by a staggering 14% over last year. Given this supply chain, we are at a stopping point: we don’t have much control over the prices other countries charge. In other words, it’s their fault across the oceans.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Price increases don’t just make our pockets lighter. They may also be to blame for another (lately downward) economic statistic: U.S. production. As a driver of our economic growth, and an important sign of a healthy economy, recent indicators are not very favorable. Growth in U.S. production has been weak all year, and a larger uptick in July (the sector expanded by 0.9%) looked promising. However, August is not looking good. According to indicators released this week, in August New York manufacturers saw a continued deterioration in their business outlook (the indicator went from a - 3.76 in July to -7.72 in August) while Philadelphia manufacturers felt an even bigger deterioration in business conditions (the indicator went from a slightly positive 3.2 in July to -30.7 in August). Why? Certainly it can’t be the factories’ fault (that’s nonsense). U.S. producers need U.S. consumers to buy their stuff (increasing exports is for another day). So, it is a spiral: if consumer prices go up, the amount of stuff we buy goes down. If we are buying less, producers will produce less. </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Of course it’s not just price’s fault (that’s not fair to blame everything on prices). There is much more at work here. If we are earning less, or are out of work (stupid high unemployment), we simply don’t have as much spending money. Can those who are unemployed be the ones to blame? Is it their fault they are unemployed? Perhaps we should remember that if producers weren’t so reliant on U.S. consumers, they wouldn’t be so dependent on how much money we have. If they made more stuff for people overseas many there would be more jobs for the currently unemployed. The blame cycle continues.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Being an expert blame shifter yourself, perhaps you could offer a few words of advice for the U.S. manufacturing sector. What would you suggest? Maybe setting up kiosks in malls overseas or offshoring less where financially viable? You are so smart, how could anyone possibly think you are ever to blame for anything! Then sit back and watch the economy jump back to life and wonder how they could ever thank you.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br />
</div><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: 115%;">(Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Bureau of Economic Analysis)</span></span>Dee Moneyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02892839688150904558noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6123361182187733668.post-2969845744746767402011-08-12T11:01:00.000-07:002011-08-12T11:58:55.702-07:00Mixed Signals<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;">The art of human behavior is still a mystery to many of us. During some point in our lives we come across an unfortunate situation: do they like me? No matter how you slice it, you can’t tell. All we get are mixed signals, like crossed wires. One day things are great and the next you might as well live on opposite sides of the country. You wonder why they haven’t messaged you back, or if they’ll call (do you need to provide a subtle reminder what your number is?). You realize the offender is changing tactics more times than P. Diddy changes his name (is that his most recent name?). This is a problem.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;">That is the story of financial markets this week. We started off with a sovereign credit downgrade (very bad) by S&P and the U.S. stock market reacted by dropping by 634 points, to the largest one day drop since the financial crisis began in 2008. Then on Tuesday the market jumps back up by about 400 points, Wednesday loses the entire gain (and then some), and Thursday the market (Dow Jones Industrial Average) comes back yet again to recover most of Wednesday’s losses. Who knows where Friday will take us? Hopefully at least back to where we were last week – or right back to where we started.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;">What does this all mean? We had an active week but not a productive one: we just went in a big circle (or enjoyed 2 periods on an oscillating curve for you smart people). There is nothing worse than trying to move forward only to end up where we began. It all comes down to wealth (money, what a surprise). If the stock markets are “down” then the value of the companies being traded are generally worth less. If companies are worth less, then they have less money to grow and invest, and (more importantly) potentially have less money to pay us employees with.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;">For those of us risk seekers, we could be directly losing wealth if the market tanks and we own stocks, bonds, mutual funds, or whatever else is out there. Ultimately, the effects of a stock market crash are far reaching and multiply out to all ends of the economy. We felt the crash of 2008 even if we didn’t own stocks (the market dropped by almost 4,500 points, or 40% in 6 months of which 1,500 were lost in one week). We heard over and over how Wall Street hurt Main Street. Enter stimulus package and bank bailouts to stop the bleeding.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;">If the U.S. markets keep oscillating, people around the world will become less confident and less willing to invest in markets that are still not on solid ground from the last crisis in confidence. To cure the symptoms we need to address the root of the problem: the U.S. economy as a whole is giving mixed signals. This latest bout started with a month long debate on whether or not the U.S. would default on our debt (think what would happen if everyone stopped paying their mortgage). This week we find out new jobless claims are down (good, fewer people lost their jobs this week than last week and the 4-week moving average is down for the sixth straight week), yet on the same day (yesterday) data shows our trade deficit jumped to $53.1bn in June, the highest since October 2008. To make matters worse, the oil deficit actually shrank – the increase in this new debt we owe to people abroad is led by non-petroleum goods and by a 2.3% drop in exports (not good, making money from people abroad is an important source of revenue). Oil debt is something that is hard to fix, but manufactured goods is something we should be able to work on. </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;">In other words, we should keep the roller coaster rides to amusement parks (they even do coasters in themes). This might require some shifts in the way we do business. Otherwise buckle up: we may be in for a wild ride ahead.</div>Dee Moneyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02892839688150904558noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6123361182187733668.post-35432705007412128752011-08-08T09:28:00.000-07:002011-08-08T09:28:33.284-07:00Hawaii 5-0<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:OfficeDocumentSettings> <o:RelyOnVML/> <o:AllowPNG/> </o:OfficeDocumentSettings> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:TrackMoves/> <w:TrackFormatting/> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:DoNotPromoteQF/> <w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther> <w:LidThemeAsian>X-NONE</w:LidThemeAsian> <w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w:DontGrowAutofit/> <w:SplitPgBreakAndParaMark/> <w:EnableOpenTypeKerning/> <w:DontFlipMirrorIndents/> <w:OverrideTableStyleHps/> </w:Compatibility> <m:mathPr> <m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/> <m:brkBin m:val="before"/> <m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/> <m:smallFrac m:val="off"/> <m:dispDef/> <m:lMargin m:val="0"/> <m:rMargin m:val="0"/> <m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/> <m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/> <m:intLim m:val="subSup"/> <m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/> </m:mathPr></w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" DefUnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span>Thursday was a special day. No, Kim K did not get married. It was President Obama’s 50<sup>th </sup>birthday. This is a big number, considering 50 years is half a century. What did you do to celebrate the momentous occasion? The media acknowledged the big day by making his gray hair transformation a news story (with a lovely accompanying photo montage). Certainly this was a very nice way to mark the occasion. Hi, you're old and gray. Welcome to "over the hill". Heartwarming.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span>50 seems to be a good age to assess how you're doing in life. Are you on the path you thought you would be? Did you accomplish all you wanted and dreamed for? It is around this age people either seem to become wholly satisfied with their contribution to society or have a mid-life crisis (this is a boon for dealerships selling small luxury convertibles with seats designed to<i> just</i> fit middle-age men, although certainly the auto industry appreciates any boost in demand). In the grand scheme of things, we might guess President Obama fits in the former over the latter category.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span>Besides possibly the most famous job in the world, President Obama has quite a resume. He's worn several career hats in his 50 years, most notably "lawyer" and "community activist" (if he got paid for it, it is a job). In fact, he is not alone. Most people wear multiple career hats throughout their working years (and contrary to popular belief, there is no average number on how many). Our career movements adjust with our preferences and the supply/demand dynamics of the labor market.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span>Of late, the labor market in the U.S. has not been overly cooperative. Jobs have been hard to come by. But on Friday one economic indicator gave President Obama a nice birthday gift: some thawing in recent months of labor market freeze. On Friday, data shows payroll jobs increased by 117,000 in July, with private jobs increasing by 154,000. Revised figures for June and May also show gains were higher than originally reported, with the economy actually adding 100,000 more jobs over those months. The thawing comes from the fact that job gains were seen across manufacturing and services (even construction added a few jobs).<span> </span>Government was the only major job loser in July.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span>The lack of a full out Hawaii heat wave, however, stems from the fact that there is still not enough job gains to help the unemployment rate.<span> </span>One still chilly spot in the jobs report was the increase in "discouraged" workers (up by 137,000 people, or 14%) who were no longer counted in the labor force (they gave up on looking for work). Hopefully they were just on beach week and will bring some heat back with them in the coming months.<br />
<br />
We can only hope that by the time we're 50 years old we fall in same "life satisfaction" category as President Obama. We also hope we get better birthday presents.<span> </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span>(Bureau of Labor Statistics)</span></div>Dee Moneyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02892839688150904558noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6123361182187733668.post-85916091571316625492011-08-03T09:50:00.000-07:002011-08-03T09:50:18.311-07:00Party Pooper<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:OfficeDocumentSettings> <o:RelyOnVML/> <o:AllowPNG/> </o:OfficeDocumentSettings> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:TrackMoves/> <w:TrackFormatting/> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:DoNotPromoteQF/> <w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther> <w:LidThemeAsian>X-NONE</w:LidThemeAsian> <w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w:DontGrowAutofit/> <w:SplitPgBreakAndParaMark/> <w:EnableOpenTypeKerning/> <w:DontFlipMirrorIndents/> <w:OverrideTableStyleHps/> </w:Compatibility> <m:mathPr> <m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/> <m:brkBin m:val="before"/> <m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/> <m:smallFrac m:val="off"/> <m:dispDef/> <m:lMargin m:val="0"/> <m:rMargin m:val="0"/> <m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/> <m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/> <m:intLim m:val="subSup"/> <m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/> </m:mathPr></w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" DefUnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span>Every party has one (you know who you are).<span> </span>It’s that guy who has way too much to drink, or that girl who is so easy she makes pressing “The Easy Button” look hard (Campus PD also falls in the “party pooper” category).<span> </span>What’s wrong with wanting to have some fun?<span> </span>It is the middle of summer after all.<span> </span>Why not live a little?<span> </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span>One reason: money.<span> </span>It’s always about the Benjamins and apparently they aren’t free (nor do they grow on trees).<span> </span>Not even banks are giving them out anymore.<span> </span>Does this mean we will be stuck to our couches (literally) for the rest of the summer, forced to watch reruns of NCIS and The Office?<span> </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span>Hopefully not.<span> </span>According to data on income and spending released yesterday, there may just be beach weeks for everyone this summer (even you, if you haven’t left already).<span> </span>In June, the amount of spending money we had after taxes and after adjusting for price increases (“real personal disposable income”) increased by 0.3% over May.<span> </span>This is the largest monthly gain so far this year, due largely to the summer break gas prices also appear to have taken.<span> </span>And our recent spending restraint gives us some wiggle room to take that beach week if we so choose:<span> </span>“real” spending (after adjusting for prices) was flat in June, and May and April saw 0.1% declines.<span> </span>Given the hiatus in gas prices that has given us more in our wallets may end as quickly as the summer sun, we might want to get on that plane/train/automobile before it leaves the station.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span><span> </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span>As if we needed more motivation to take that last minute summer trip, economic data released last week shows consumer confidence is up slightly in July (to 59.5 from 58.5 in June – anything above “50” is positive, although “80” is the threshold for strong optimism), thanks again to the summer vacation taken by gas prices and people seeing the money available for summer spending on the rise (jobs are another story).<span> </span>In other words, what are we waiting for?<span> </span>Even if you’ve already taken that summer vacation, go ahead and take that sick day and head to the beach!</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span>While you’re at the beach, getting your suntan on, we can also be productive, responsible citizens.<span> </span>Data released Monday shows the economy needs our help, even while we are away from our desks.<span> </span><span> </span>A monthly measure of how the manufacturing sector is doing (“ISM Manufacturing Index”) came in at a 2 year low in July (at 50.9 the sector is barely growing), well below expectations and the lowest since the economic recovery began.<span> </span>New orders and backlog orders actually decreased in July over June, not a good sign for the economy for future months.<span> </span>Perhaps we can make sandcastles, and sell them to unknowing foreign tourists, would that help?<span> </span>Maybe. <span> </span>We could also set up more beach vendors to sell US made beach stuff (or not even beach stuff, like cigars or “I Love USA” goodies).<span> </span>If other countries can do this on their beaches, why can’t we?<span> </span>Our wallets will thank us later, just in time for next year’s beach week!<span> </span>No party poopers left behind.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span>(Bureau of Economic Analysis, The Conference Board, Institute for Supply Management)</span></div>Dee Moneyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02892839688150904558noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6123361182187733668.post-991088976415241922011-07-20T14:51:00.000-07:002011-07-20T14:51:50.671-07:00Wedding Crashers<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:OfficeDocumentSettings> <o:RelyOnVML/> <o:AllowPNG/> </o:OfficeDocumentSettings> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:TrackMoves/> <w:TrackFormatting/> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:DoNotPromoteQF/> <w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther> <w:LidThemeAsian>X-NONE</w:LidThemeAsian> <w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w:DontGrowAutofit/> <w:SplitPgBreakAndParaMark/> <w:EnableOpenTypeKerning/> <w:DontFlipMirrorIndents/> <w:OverrideTableStyleHps/> </w:Compatibility> <m:mathPr> <m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/> <m:brkBin m:val="before"/> <m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/> <m:smallFrac m:val="off"/> <m:dispDef/> <m:lMargin m:val="0"/> <m:rMargin m:val="0"/> <m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/> <m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/> <m:intLim m:val="subSup"/> <m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/> </m:mathPr></w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" DefUnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span>It was big news in all the major headlines this week:<span> </span>Justin Bieber and Selena Gomez crashed someone’s wedding over the weekend.<span> </span>He heard them karaoke-ing one of his songs as he drove by and stopped the car.<span> </span>Who does that?<span> </span>What a fairytale wedding surprise (especially for the groom, surely).<span> </span>Why doesn’t stuff like this ever happen to us?<span> </span>The national promotion this couple got was incredible.<span> </span>They have set themselves up for a big future – we might just see them again soon on Dancing With The Stars!</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span>The promotion of stuff – advertising – is a huge industry.<span> </span>And the companies behind the advertising wouldn’t keep doing it if it didn’t work.<span> </span>As we know, celebrities can have a big influence on us and our spending patterns.<span> </span>50 Cent tells us to try Vitamin Water (“try it!”), we do.<span> </span>Kim K implies sketchers are what allow her workouts to be so productive, so we buy them.<span> </span>Oprah opens her mouth and we do whatever she asks of us.<span> </span>Stephen Colbert even has a sizable influence on Wikipedia (Bell!).<span> </span>The Colbert “bump” should not be taken lightly.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span>The National Association of Realtors (NAR) should take a cue. <span> </span>An industry that could surely use the benefit of a celebrity blessing has yet to go for the gold. <span> </span>Data released today shows the number of existing home sales in June continued to fall – by 0.8% over May and by 8.8% over last June.<span> </span>Overall, existing home sales have been on a downslide in 2011 (not good).<span> </span>Further, home starts (the number of new homes being built) have been stuck at an annual rate of around 600,000 since November 2008, compared to an average annual rate of over 1,700,000 during 2000-2007.<span> </span>In fact, since data was first collected in 1959, the average annual rate of home starts was over 1,000,000 until 2008.<span> </span>So although data released yesterday shows June home starts increased to 629,000, it is still well below the historical average and it will take a few months to see whether this is a one time increase or the start of an upward trend.<span> </span> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span>The number of home starts is important because of the value building stuff creates throughout all sectors of the economy: a “multiplier effect” spending boost from the wages and salaries of everyone involved in the process. Certainly the real estate market was overheated in the mid-2000’s and home values were unsustainably high.<span> </span>Still, with the lack of a rebound in home sales over the last 2 years it is clear the real estate market has a long road ahead. <span> </span>For many of us, our wealth is dependent on the value of our homes, and our jobs are dependent on construction so this is important.<span> </span>Perhaps multiple celebrities should be involved.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span>To this end, the NAR should take action.<span> </span>If Jennifer Lopez can sing private weddings, certainly appearing at a house closing ceremony isn’t outside of the realm of possibility.<span> </span>The NAR should consider offering such a prize as part of a contest for all homebuyers.<span> </span>They could even make a reality show around it (hey, we can’t get enough of that type of stuff).<span> </span>It shouldn’t be that hard; many celebrities donate their time to great causes, like the Make a Wish Foundation.<span> </span>Without action, the real estate industry may turn into just an important a cause!</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span>(National Association of Realtors, Census Bureau)</span></div>Dee Moneyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02892839688150904558noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6123361182187733668.post-22217017353755918292011-07-18T13:12:00.000-07:002011-07-19T12:00:28.243-07:00Margaritaville<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;">Hello, Monday. Hello, office. There may be somewhere else you’d rather be right about now than sitting at your computer reading this blog (no offense taken). Maybe it is on whatever planet Jimmy Buffet is actually on (drinking margaritas), or just at the pool (doesn’t have to be a fancy pool, just one with a view of the Caribbean ocean and a swim-up bar) drinking margaritas. Maybe it’s traveling around the world (hello, Italian villa) or even simpler than that, you wish you were at the movies checking out the new Harry Potter film (the last one!).</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;">What if we just quit our jobs, and had the freedom to do whatever we pleased whenever we pleased. This sounds like a reasonable goal in life. What would we need to have to be able to achieve this? Obviously, money. How much? Depends on how you would want to celebrate this newfound freedom. Not only would we need to consider how much the stuff we want costs now, but we would also need to plan for what the same stuff will cost over time (we don’t ever want to give up this freedom, do we?). As prices for stuff go up, our saved money is essentially worth less. As we spend to celebrate freedom, and as the value of our funds decreases over time, we certainly need to take this into account. What we don’t want is to wake up one day and realize we have to go back to work. Goodbye, Margaritaville.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;">Price increases (“inflation”) are not to be swept under the rug or dreamt away. Data released Friday shows inflation for the stuff we buy every day is back to 2009 levels (after being quite low in 2010). There are several measures of inflation we should stay aware of in our financial planning. The most immediately relevant measure, the consumer price index (CPI) registers price changes on the stuff we buy (consumer goods). In June prices (“core CPI” excluding food and energy) went up by 0.3% over May, and by 1.6% percent over last year. The Government likes inflation in the 2% range, so an annual rate of 1.6% is good. But this annual rate has been slowly creeping up since March, and likely we will need to adjust our freedom spending to account for annual consumer inflation in the 2-3% range.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;">Another measure of inflation relates to the prices the companies who produce the stuff we buy pay to make the stuff. This measure can be seen as a foreshadowing of prices consumers will face in the coming months – if producers are paying more to make the goods we buy, very likely those price increases will be passed along to us. Data released Thursday shows the prices producers pay (“Producer Price Index excluding food and energy” or “Core PPI”) have been increasing by an average 0.3% each month this year. At this rate producers will have prices go up by over 3% in 2011. </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;">The reality of inflation means we would need more money over time just to maintain our current level of spending, let alone additional freedom spending. A regular stream of income to replenish our deteriorating freedom funds without having to do any work be very helpful. Sure no problem, see you in Margaritaville.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><br />
</div><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;"> (Bureau of Labor Statistics)</span>Dee Moneyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02892839688150904558noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6123361182187733668.post-81040982459884508142011-07-14T12:02:00.000-07:002011-07-14T12:02:23.249-07:00Some Things are Certain<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:OfficeDocumentSettings> <o:RelyOnVML/> <o:AllowPNG/> </o:OfficeDocumentSettings> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:TrackMoves/> <w:TrackFormatting/> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:DoNotPromoteQF/> <w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther> <w:LidThemeAsian>X-NONE</w:LidThemeAsian> <w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w:DontGrowAutofit/> <w:SplitPgBreakAndParaMark/> <w:EnableOpenTypeKerning/> <w:DontFlipMirrorIndents/> <w:OverrideTableStyleHps/> </w:Compatibility> <m:mathPr> <m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/> <m:brkBin m:val="before"/> <m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/> <m:smallFrac m:val="off"/> <m:dispDef/> <m:lMargin m:val="0"/> <m:rMargin m:val="0"/> <m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/> <m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/> <m:intLim m:val="subSup"/> <m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/> </m:mathPr></w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" DefUnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<div class="yiv98802265msonormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span>Like having to wait (in line, in traffic) when you have the least amount of time to do so. One thing that is said to be certain for everyone, regardless of age, race, gender, and income bracket: Taxes. Few people can say they like taxes with complete sincerity. It’s hard to say goodbye to 25-33% of your hard earned salary before you ever really had it. And everyone wants a piece: we pay Federal, State, and Local taxes. We get taxed upfront in our salaries and taxed on the backend through sales taxes and property taxes. There’s a tax for everything. Try booking an airline ticket and see how taxes impact the final price. Or how much your bonus check would have been if it weren’t for our friend, Tax. Imagine if you won the jackpot lottery, how much you would lose to the Tax?</span><span> <br />
<br />
</span><span>Taxes follow us wherever we go – you can run but you can’t hide. Just as we have to individually pay taxes on our earnings, so do corporations on their earnings (profits). As you could imagine, just as we strive to pay the minimum amount of taxes we required of us, so do companies. When a company is so big it’s global this becomes a bit easier.<span> </span>Because of differences in countries’ tax policies, other countries have cheaper tax requirements than the U.S.<span> </span>Other countries may also have cheaper operating costs or cheaper access to required inputs, like energy.<span> </span>These potential financial benefits could encourage global companies to shift production abroad, to foreign affiliates.<span> </span>The potential tax benefits to shifting production abroad and claiming profits in a more “tax friendly” country can be quite significant.</span></span></div><div class="yiv98802265msonormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span><br />
</span><span>How might this affect other aspects of our country's financial well-being? Consider our trade deficit (below, on a monthly basis). </span></span></div><div class="yiv98802265msonormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://mam.econoday.com/showimage.asp?imageid=21069" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="273" src="http://mam.econoday.com/showimage.asp?imageid=21069" width="400" /></a></div><div class="yiv98802265msonormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><br />
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</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span>Like our own bank statements, this is not a pretty picture.<span> </span>Not even the “great recession” gave us a reprieve on having a trade deficit (the amount we export relative to the amount we import). And while a good part of this deficit is due to oil, not all of it is. Data released Tuesday indicates that in May our trade deficit was just over $50 billion, with the crude oil & petroleum products deficit at over $30 billion. <span> </span>The non-petroleum goods deficit was over $33 billion, and services had a trade surplus of almost $15 billion. <span> </span>In May exports decreased by $1 billion over April while imports gained by $5.6 billion, not great, and prices aren’t helping: data released yesterday shows that thanks largely to oil, import prices are increasing at their fastest rate since 2008 (up by 13.6% in the last year).<br />
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So what about U.S. companies shifting production abroad?<span> </span>When companies source production abroad, and then ship the items back to the U.S. for final consumption by us, it gets counted in our balance of trade (the U.S. checkbook for export sales and import purchases) as an import.<span> </span>This does not have to be a negative thing – to stay competitive companies are going global.<span> </span>Having everything based i</span></span><a class="cssButton" href="javascript:void(0)" id="previewButton" onclick="void(0);" target=""></a><span style="font-size: small;"><span>n the U.S. may be prohibitively expensive if the company wants to grow profits and stay competitive.<span> </span>However, the more negative our trade balance is, the more it drags down our country’s economic growth.<span> </span>Technically, imports are money out the door to another country.<span> </span>At least with taxes we receive some public goods, like education, social security, and a national defense.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span>The actual effect of globalization and offshore tax incentives on our trade deficit is hard to measure.<span> </span>But the affect is certain.<span> </span>Looking at the non-petroleum goods trade deficit, we see a stand-out in consumer goods (the stuff we buy).<span> </span>In May we exported $14 billion in consumer goods and imported $43 billion.<span> </span>We imported over $2 billion more than we exported in TV’s/VCR’s, toys and games, and pharmaceutical preparations (medication).<span> </span>We sure do like our iPads and Nintendo Wii’s.<span> </span>So while some things are certain (there’s no such thing as a free lunch), perhaps “certain” is up to interpretation.<span> </span></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span><span> </span><span> </span></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span>(Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics)</span></span></div><div class="yiv98802265msonormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><br />
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</div>Dee Moneyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02892839688150904558noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6123361182187733668.post-82653841527879144862011-07-09T14:25:00.000-07:002011-07-09T14:25:03.048-07:00When Life Gives You Lemons...<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">We know, make lemonade. How tired do we get of hearing that when we’re in (excuse the pun) a pickle. The idea of turning something unfortunate into something great is reminiscent of attempts to turn lead into gold (alchemy) or squeeze water from a rock. Sometimes the sugar we need is not in an obvious spot, though that’s probably part of the point. We have to be creative, think out of the box, like a puzzle or riddle. The sugar could be somewhere completely unexpected.</span></span><span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman"; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"> <br />
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</span><span style="color: black; font-family: Calibri; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">Take alchemy. Yes, they were unsuccessful at making gold. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But their work founded the entire modern science of chemistry (that’s pretty sweet in a sugar-y way). <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Failure in the immediate objective was dwarfed by the unintended consequence of their research. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Sure, this benefit was not obvious (or likely fulfilling) at first but upon retrospect chemistry is kind of a big deal. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It helped bring us into the modern age.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Think where we would be if we didn’t understand the composition of compounds that go into the goods we use and consume on a daily basis!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What kind of world would we live in if there were no such thing as plastic (or Oreos, Doritos, etc.).</span> </span></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;"><span style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">It is an ambitious task to find the sweet spot in seemingly sour things, but there is always some opportunity or lesson we can take with us and apply to something to make it better.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With the recent spate of economic indicators indicating a “soft patch” in the </span><st1:country-region><st1:place><span style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">U.S.</span></st1:place></st1:country-region><span style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"> economy (and our wallets), we already needed to put our thinking caps on.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Now with yesterday’s employment numbers, we will need to put our alchemist hats on.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>After adding just 25,000 jobs in May, the </span><st1:country-region><st1:place><span style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">U.S.</span></st1:place></st1:country-region><span style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"> economy added a paltry 18,000 jobs in June (and knowing the data source, this 18,000 could easily be revised down to zero) with the private sector (non-government) adding just 57,000 jobs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Revisions to the May and April jobs numbers took away 44,000 of the initially reported gains.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">For those of you looking for work, these numbers show some basic trends: construction = bad, government = bad, education = bad, finance = bad, everything else = not as bad.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(Job seekers: There are other jobs numbers you could look at that break it down further by region.) <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s no secret that jobs have not come back as quickly as after other recessions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We don’t need statisticians to tell us that even 2 years after the official recession jobs are hard to come by, with little to choose from (like the produce section at the grocery store on a Sunday afternoon).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Job vacancies seem to be in one of two buckets: low skill, low pay or too-high-skilled-for-you for good pay.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You finally (after searching hundreds of job postings and poorly designed job sites) find a job that would use your brain, and previous experience, and you meet the 15 posted requirements.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Only to find out that so did the other 5,000 people who applied.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It would appear these were just the de facto minimum requirements.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To actually get an interview you have to do much better (like speak 8 languages, develop a cure for cancer, unilaterally save the whales, or – more likely, know someone who works there already).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">The fact is the U.S. economy is not adding enough jobs to keep up with the number of workers entering the labor force (pool of eligible workers); indeed the numbers now reveal a trend of a decreasing labor force participation rate (not good).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Almost half of those counted as unemployed have been unemployed for over 27 weeks (that is a lot).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The longer someone is unemployed or too discouraged to be included in the labor force the less desirable they may become to employers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(And we won’t get into the drain having no job imposes on entitlement programs paid for by us.)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This does not have to be a lost cause, we can and must take the failure of our economy to create jobs and make it into something better (find the sugar).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One option is to address the observation that our labor force is having a hard time matching the skills needed by those companies now hiring.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If companies are global, why should we assume their labor forces are not?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For the bucket of high skill, high pay jobs we are competing with people around the world; it’s a different ball game.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With our alchemist hats on, we need to create the new elixir of our labor force, find our next comparative advantage.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The opportunity, the sugar, is out there (we have a lot to offer!), and the potential is too sweet to waste.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">(Bureau of Labor Statistics)<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>Dee Moneyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02892839688150904558noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6123361182187733668.post-91208169707992866262011-07-07T10:59:00.000-07:002011-07-07T11:27:01.263-07:00Everyday I'm Shuffling<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;">We can finally move out of our chairs, or at least turn the channel on the TV: the Casey Anthony trial is over. For some reason, it seems us Americans can’t get enough of this or any similar type drama. For the past few weeks, this trial followed us wherever we went. To the gym, to the work lounge, to our daily internet browsing, and home again. Just when you wondered what could possibly be on TV worth watching as our favorite shows are on summer break, along comes this gem. You might think with all the crime, law, and judge shows on TV (and even an entire TruTV channel to promote our love of this stuff) we wouldn’t be so infatuated with this trial. But that is not the American way, we love a good criminal trial, preferably preceded by a high-speed car chase. We still dissect whether O.J. is guilty and that was 16 years ago. (Guilty! Not Guilty! The Glove! The Ford Bronco!) <br />
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Yet with this 24/7 news story quickly becoming last week’s obsession, we have a void to fill. Sure the annual Nathan’s hot dog eating contest to celebrate our nation's independence was pretty entertaining (if not disturbing). And (as if on cue) a new season of America’s Got Talent is underway. But Talent is not Idol (<i>how could it be</i> without Ryan Seacrest) – and we’re still left hungry for more. Let's face it: This is the worst time of year in terms of keeping our TV appetites satisfied. But we can make do with what we have for now. </div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;">The sentiment of making do with the summer TV lineup while hoping for better shows in the fall season is a good way to describe the general sentiment of the economy. According to the results of two surveys conducted each month, one for the manufacturing sector and one for the non-manufacturing sector, economic activity is generally moving in a positive direction, albeit slowly. (Non-manufacturing includes retail, construction, real estate, finance, entertainment, education, healthcare, and other business services.) Overall business activity and orders for new business in June for the non-manufacturing sector came in at “53.4” and “53.6”, respectively (anything over “50” means there is growth) which is good, but these numbers are down over May. Further, the percent of non-manufacturing businesses reporting declines in activity and new orders (not good) over the last few months appears to be steadily rising (going from 11% to 17% for business activity and from 9% to 16% for new orders). The backlog of unfilled orders for non-manufacturers contracted in June (going from “55.0” in May to “48.5”) likely a reflection of the slowing rate of new orders. Certainly it is good that businesses are still growing overall but there seems to be room for improvement.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;">Understanding how the economy is doing is important because if the businesses around us aren’t doing well, in all likelihood neither are we. The private non-manufacturing sector made up about 75% of U.S. economic activity ("value added") in 2010. How these businesses are doing has implications for our jobs, wages, and quality of life. If businesses aren’t making money then jobs and salaries are one of the first things to get cut. The impact of this lost value to the economy affects other businesses, which perpetuates a negative cycle (like a sickness). That’s why each month it’s important to look at what the economic indicators are telling us, as a way to take our temperature. Taking cues from the temperature of businesses around us can help us make better decisions with how to budget our money. The numbers released yesterday should give us a cautious optimism.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;">How can we help ensure a smooth next few months (when our TV shows come back)? We can always expand our horizons and join a summer kickball/softball/beer pong league. Similarly, businesses may also wish to expand their horizons, literally. Exports were one of the few components of both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing surveys that registered solid growth in June (steady at “57”). Interestingly, 69% percent of non-manufacturing companies surveyed said they do not perform or measure exports (granted, some things aren’t “tradeable”). Time to get off the couch and shuffle.</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><br />
</div><span style="color: black; font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 115%;">(Institute of Supply Management-ISM National <i>Report on Business</i>, Bureau of Economic Analysis)</span>Dee Moneyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02892839688150904558noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6123361182187733668.post-64175050592249816482011-07-02T15:30:00.000-07:002011-07-05T07:29:11.954-07:00Time for Fireworks<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span style="color: black;">A big holiday for us is here: Independence Day. The day to celebrate </span><span style="color: black;">America</span><span style="color: black;"> and everything our great nation stands for (plus we get to see lots of cool fireworks). It’s a pretty big deal around here, enough so that it’s a Federal holiday and (most of us) get a paid day off. And with this big holi-day-off comes some really monumental decisions: like if you want a hamburger or a hot dog (or, for those true patriots, both). Do you want your BBQ sauce to have a ketchup or mustard base or are you a mayo person instead? To get a dessert that’s red, white, and blue will you use blue Jello or food dye (and what about the 50 stars)?</span><br />
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span style="color: black;">Since the founding out this great nation, we’ve grown a lot (and not just in the size of our waistbands). Since 1776 we’ve added more states, more territories, more people, and more money to our national debt. We also have more options to choose from for just about everything. McDonalds or Burger King? Dunkin Donuts or Krispy Kreme? American Idol or The Voice? The list goes on. Americans have fought hard for the “freedoms” and “liberties” we have today “from sea to shining sea.” Just think: where would we be if George Washington didn’t feel like crossing the </span><span style="color: black;">Delaware</span><span style="color: black;"> in the cold middle of winter? Or if members of the Continental Congress were nothing but a bunch of British loyalists?</span><br />
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<span style="color: black;">As appreciation for all this freedom, you may wonder how we can give back in a way that shows just how much we value our American pride. Here’s an idea: let’s finish </span><span style="color: black;">Mount Rushmore</span><span style="color: black;">. Then build monuments to celebrate our history in every national park. Then build more bridges and highways as a way to “keep </span><span style="color: black;">America</span><span style="color: black;"> growing.” Let’s celebrate </span><span style="color: black;">America</span><span style="color: black;"> at its foundation, literally, by giving some life to our construction industry. Data released Friday shows construction spending, which many see as an indicator of economic expansion (if people are confident, they are more likely to invest in building more homes and businesses for example), continued to decrease in May (by 0.6% over April and by 7.1% over last year). Even before adjusting for natural price increases, year over year construction spending has decreased substantially since the recession began (in May the annual rate of total construction spending was 2/3 of what it was in December 2007). You may think this is your checkbook over the last few years, but it’s actually an important economic statistic:</span></div><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span><br />
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</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span style="color: black;">According to the Food Network, this weekend Americans are expected to consume over 150 million hot dogs during 74 million cookouts. That is very patriotic, our Founding Father’s would be so proud. Go on and have your feast of American Independence. And after we finish growing our waistbands a little more let’s turn back to growing our nation by laying the foundation for future economic expansion. Happy Independence Day!</span><br />
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<span style="color: black;">(Census Bureau, NBER, Food Network)</span></div><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span>Dee Moneyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02892839688150904558noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6123361182187733668.post-19958601559687868762011-06-29T16:45:00.000-07:002011-06-29T16:45:41.374-07:00They're Everywhere<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:ApplyBreakingRules/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w:UseFELayout/> </w:Compatibility> <w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">Babies. Everywhere you go lately it seems someone just had or is about to have a new addition to their family. This is expected around this time: serious, investigative research (of the google variety) shows October 5<sup>th</sup> is the most common birthday. You can understand the timing but lately it’s so pervasive you almost wonder if it’s contagious. <br />
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Babies have many benefits to many people: not only are they great news for the families they belong to but they are also great for the economy (bonus: benefits carry though the short-, medium-, and long-term). Babies require spending that goes on to induce consumption in all areas of the economy. Some short-term spending gains include healthcare, and retail sectors such as furniture and clothing and apparel (assuming it is not all imports, bad). The cherry on top: Baby showers, aren’t they a boon for Babies ‘R’ Us? They really get you. Planning for a baby is as big a production (if not bigger) than planning a wedding (with an engagement of 9 months). For the friends, the only difference between a baby shower and a bridal shower is that “bingo” becomes “babyo.” <br />
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Another “baby bump” to the economy that is great, especially right now: the tendency for the expecting families to need bigger houses. The housing market, as those of us home owners know, is still down for the count. But maybe this year’s crop of babies are the answer we’ve been looking for. Data released today shows pending home sales are up 8.2% in May over April. Coincidence? Maybe. (Spring also happens to be a popular time to move in general because the weather is nicer and school is ending for the year, but let’s put that aside for now.) Yet even with such a large gain, it fails to offset the (revised) 11.3% drop in pending home sales in April. This also comes after data released last week shows existing home sales fell 3.8% in May (and by 15.3% over last May) and new home sales fell 2.1% in May (though have been relatively stable over the past year). Can we count on the impending baby boom to pick up some more slack here? Let’s hope so. <br />
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Perhaps it is also this year’s crop of babies that have helped to stabilize home prices (or home values for you homeowners) over the last few months. An index of home prices for the top 10 and 20 major cities released Tuesday indicates in April home prices increased (albeit slightly) for the first time in 8 months.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Again, though, more baby power is needed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Seasonally adjusted, prices were flat (0%) in April.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Further, prices are 33% below their 2006 highs (we are at 2003 levels), and average prices have increased by less than 2% from their 2009 lows.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To be fair, prices may have been artificially inflated and we may not see 2006 prices back for a long time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But still, more babies may imply more home sales (or bigger – more expensive homes) and higher prices (values).<br />
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So it turns out babies can be productive and help create value in our economy even before they are born (who said they had to finish school to start making a real contribution?).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And this adding value thing is important work. Perhaps then we should cut them some slack.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The next time we hear a screaming baby in the store, in the restaurant, or on public transportation, we should remember the value they bring to the economy in the short-run and to our wallets in the long-run.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Or at least have ear plugs handy. </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">(National Association of Realtors, Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index)</span></div>Dee Moneyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02892839688150904558noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6123361182187733668.post-59214573186356621022011-06-27T18:43:00.001-07:002011-06-27T18:43:32.827-07:00Sweet and Sour<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:ApplyBreakingRules/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w:UseFELayout/> </w:Compatibility> <w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span style="color: black; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">Many things in life are good and bad (or “not-so-good” for you optimists) at the same time. Like it’s finally summer but the kids are home (hello, summer camp!). Or you played hookie for the day to go to the beach but learn the hard way that you weren’t the only genius “sick” that day and sit in hours of traffic. Or you are excited to have a long weekend but find yourself attending a funeral and a baby shower in a two day span. The list goes on. Isn’t life fun! <br />
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We’ve learned some lessons over the last few years about money. Some good, some bad: we’ve learned that a lot of debt isn’t sustainable (whoops) but hopefully we’ve also learned some better money managing tips. Our new and improved financial antennas should help us keep our finances on a channel we can live with (and one that hopefully also shows Glee and American Idol). We can still spend money but we should keep spending within our means (“spending in moderation”). Shockingly, binge spending is just as bad for you as binge eating. <br />
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Keeping our antennas finely tuned into how much money we have (and what our expenses are) can help. Data released today shows nationally our disposable income (spending money) increased in May by $29.2 billion (or 0.2% over April). Of course, then comes the less appealing: “real” disposable income (spending money after adjusting for price increases) increased by 0.1% - not great, but better than the 0.1% decrease in real disposable income in April. Overall, however, as a nation our real disposable income has seen pretty negligible gains over the last year. At least it isn’t declining! <br />
<br />
Our personal spending (on all things not just retail), which is an important ingredient in keeping the economy alive and well, flat lined in May. In May, our personal spending (“personal consumption expenditures”) increased by $4.6 billion (or 0.0%) after increasing by $28.8 billion in April. The flat spending in May isn’t all bad – the slower spending was likely due to the (albeit slight but still welcome) drop in gas prices. However, there is some not-so-good data too: after adjusting for prices, “real” spending declined in April and May, the first months to have real declines since January 2010. <br />
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It’s not surprising that we (people, businesses) are being more careful about spending – perhaps we’ve learned our lesson on money management! Can’t spend what we don’t have, very true. Next we can sell our money managing secrets in a “Money for Dummies” book for those young on money handling experience in other countries (Ooo, Exports! Bonus.). That’s one way to give our economy some lemonade from the lemons. Let’s try to keep the sweet and sours in life to stuff beyond our control (and Chinese food). <br />
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(Bureau of Economic Analysis) </span></div>Dee Moneyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02892839688150904558noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6123361182187733668.post-27570786697366356822011-06-22T19:47:00.000-07:002011-06-22T19:47:40.843-07:00Steady as She Goes<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:ApplyBreakingRules/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w:UseFELayout/> </w:Compatibility> <w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if !mso]><img src="http://img2.blogblog.com/img/video_object.png" style="background-color: #b2b2b2; " class="BLOGGER-object-element tr_noresize tr_placeholder" id="ieooui" data-original-id="ieooui" /> <style>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">We all have those moments: we just want to do what we need to do to make it through the day (is it time to go home yet?). And for most of us our days follow a pretty steady (some might say “boring”) routine. We get up, go to work, run errands, babysit (parent), make dinner (following the new USDA “food plate” rules of course) and if there is any time left we may try to do something for ourselves (like go to the gym, or go to the gym through osmosis of watching other people workout on TV). This is what people like to call “work-life balance.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Really our objective is to try to keep a happy balance in our lives of getting everything we need to get done done and also have some fun time leftover. </span> <br />
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<span style="mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">In other words, most of us avoid making waves in maintaining our daily life balance. Sure there are “bumps”: we all dabble in the occasional “friendly” gossip (ever time how fast a rumor gets around the office?), or we may get angry and have some choice words for our fellow citizens who have driving issues or work in customer service. We may also love reading about mud-slinging between “frenemies” (</span><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">Paris</span><span style="mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"> v. Kim, T.O. v. everyone). Even political figures make the cut (Bristol Palin wrote a “memoir” slamming Meghan McCain as a “snobby whiner,” this could turn into a chick fight). But underneath all that we are peace-loving people right? </span> <br />
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<span style="mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">Our economy acts in a similar way – it stays on a steady course with some bumps along the way. These bumps can be good or bad (the latest "bump" was bad). And just like how we try to keep a happy balance in our lives, the Federal Reserve (the bank of the U.S. Government) has the job of keeping a happy balance in the economy. That is a tall order; we have a hard enough time keeping our own lives moving forward at a happy, steady rate let alone worry about 300 million other people. There are a lot of us who are still feeling the pinch from the 2008-09 recession, especially in the jobs department (our average hourly wages, after adjusting for price increases, went down over the last year by 1.6%). But getting us all back on track is exactly what the Fed is trying to do. How? Through a couple of different ways, and this is what we hear about on the news. One of our problems has been getting loans, as individuals and as businesses to have money to pay for the stuff we need or stay in/grow business. So, the Fed has been “injecting” money (aka “liquidity”) into banks and businesses (called “quantitative easing”). The Fed has done this twice (the second time dubbed “QE2” for short) and will end that at the end of the month.</span> <br />
<br />
<span style="mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">The main way the Fed is trying to get the economy back in balance is through a special short-term interest rate (called the “Fed Funds Rate,” that is the cost for banks to borrow money held by the U.S. Government). Again the point of influencing interest rates is to influence how much extra money is in the economy (“money supply”). The key here is that the interest rate set by the Fed filters down into the interest rates we see at the bank (a controversial assumption). So, the idea is that when interest rates are low, people have less incentive to save and more incentive to spend, generating economic growth. Similarly (as we know from the mid-2000’s) low interest rates can make it more affordable for people and companies to borrow money, also encouraging spending. Too much extra money can increase prices (“inflation”) because of the increase in our spending, so there is a delicate balance. Right now the Fed wants the economy to grow, to encourage spending, to get companies to hire more people, and to get our housing prices back on track. So it is no surprise that the Fed decided today to keep the interest rate (the Fed Funds Rate) at its historic low, between 0-0.25%, and the Fed intends to keep rates this low for an “extended period.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Steady as she goes, the rate has been this low since December 2008. </span><br />
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<span style="mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;">The hope is that these low rates will trickle down to helping us, the country, restore balance by providing the appropriate environment that will enable us to work, eat, and live in our happy, steady, balanced way.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, it’s taking a bit longer than anticipated (the bump is in fact a hump), and just like we sometimes take a step back to re-examine our relationships in times of stress so too may the Fed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Perhaps the Fed should invest in Yoga.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;">(The Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics)</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: SimSun; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN;"></span></div>Dee Moneyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02892839688150904558noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6123361182187733668.post-86370857892188370542011-06-16T20:23:00.000-07:002011-06-16T20:25:15.661-07:00Going, Going, Gone<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">That was the general sentiment many of us experienced last night while watching the Stanley Cup Final (Boston won 4-0 over Vancouver). After a thrilling (and “short”) 9 month season, it all came down to this last game. Both teams had a lot at stake. But as is with all sports, there could only be one champion. Although Vancouver came into the playoffs ranked #1 (what do statisticians know anyway?) it’s not particularly shocking that Vancouver lost. What was disappointing was how badly Vancouver lost given how hard (and long – did you see “9 month season”?) the team worked to make it to this game: they played the series with Boston out to the full 7 games and won all the preceding playoff rounds. And the weight of all of Vancouver was on their shoulders: this was to be Vancouver’s first Cup victory in their 40 years as a team. </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">So what happened last night – was the burden too great to bear? Throughout the series the team was “going and going” to the finish but watching the team it was as if the only place they ultimately “gone” was fishing (or to early retirement). Now what are they going to do – start all over again from the bottom? And what about the Canadians (especially those from Vancouver) who were as sure of their imminent win as we were about being raptured? How can they face the world with so much egg on their face? <br />
<br />
There might be a solution to this whole mess that could be a win-win for Canada and the Stanley Cup-holding U.S. As you may have noticed, the U.S. is in a mountain of debt. Data released today shows our “current account balance” (checkbook with the rest of the world) came in at -$119 billion for the first 3 months of 2011 (yikes). At this rate we will add $480 billion to our debt this year with the world (“current account deficit”), and this eventually has to get paid back – with interest (inflation, which subtracts from a debt’s nominal value, can only do so much here). You may wonder who is balancing this checkbook, and why they are employed (did they pass grade school arithmetic?). That would be all of us, buying more from other countries than they buy from us (to be fair, a lot of this debt is due to ever higher oil prices – but we all know debt is debt). Now, if you’re in a pile of debt, and need to pay the bills, what do you do? We start selling our valued possessions (Exhibit A: A woman was in news this week for selling an Obama signed letter to make ends meet). The same can be true here – the Cup must be worth a lot to Canada, we could restore their national pride and they could help restore our budget. Maybe $119 billion worth?</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: small;">If Canadian teams insist on only getting the Stanley Cup the legitimate way (lame), the U.S. should take its latest competitive advantage in hockey and sell the prize to the highest bidder. Given China’s rise in just about every way (did you see the last Olympics?), and given their Machiavellian winning strategy (did you see the last summer Olympics?) this “trade” might be something they are interested in. Which is good, because last year we accrued $300 billion in debt with China, and we are on pace for another banner year (we took on $66 billion in new debt in the first 3 months of 2011). What will our new debt be this year with China? Hopefully, going, going, gone. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: small;">(Bureau of Economic Analysis)</span></div>Dee Moneyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02892839688150904558noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6123361182187733668.post-21678059408084363172011-06-15T15:17:00.000-07:002011-06-16T12:33:26.705-07:00On Your Mark, Get Set…<div class="yiv98802265msonormal" style="color: black; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt;">Ladies, get ready to go. Gentleman, be waiting at the finish line. Hugh Hefner (Hef) is officially back on the market. And at 85 years old, time is of the essence. This is a race to the finish, and the last one standing wins (think of this as the next season of “The Bachelor” and ladies you’re in it to win it). There are some serious gains at stake – for the (single of course) ladies and gentlemen (sorry happily married people you’ll just have to live vicariously). First, whichever lucky lady lands Hef will likely land her very own E! reality show. Second is the glamorous lifestyle Hef’s leading lady enjoys: living in a mansion (granted the 10pm curfew isn’t great), working hard on the tan, and mingling with celebrities. Third is never having to wait on line for anything, ever. Hey, it’s a tough life but somebody’s got to do it. </span></div><div class="yiv98802265msonormal" style="color: black; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><br />
</div><div class="yiv98802265msonormal" style="color: black; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt;">Gentlemen, there’s potential for you to benefit too. It’s no secret that Hef’s girlfriends have boys who are “just friends” on the side (as in Kendra was “just friends” with that football player and magically moved in with him right after she left the mansion). If you just happen to be that boy “friend” it’s quite possible some of those benefits could trickle down to you (“friends with benefits”). But wait, if you stick with it, there’s more.</span></div><div class="yiv98802265msonormal" style="color: black; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><br />
</div><div class="yiv98802265msonormal" style="color: black; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt;">As they say with most good things, at some point the relationship will likely come to an end (and no one will see it coming). Looking at previous trends, Hef’s ladies don’t walk away empty handed, and there is a direct relationship (“correlation”) between the seriousness of the relationship and the post-relationship reward. Case in point: Hef bought his last wife the mansion next door! A beautiful new home would be a fantastic parting gift; it would provide a direct benefit to you and an indirect benefit to the housing market. The housing market sure could use the hospitality – according to survey results released today (called the “Housing Market Index”) that depicts home builders’ confidence in the housing market, morale is low. Home builders do not expect home sales to improve, as building costs are increasing while home prices and sales are decreasing. An index of “50” or greater indicates more builders believe sales conditions are good than not – in June the index came in at “13,” the lowest since last September. The index has not been above “50” since April 2006, and June was the 8<sup>th</sup> lowest month in the survey’s 26 year history. Given the importance of the housing market to our economy (it’s pretty important – you saw what happened to the economy when the housing market tanked and how neither are fully recovered), at this point every home sale counts. Which region has the weakest prospects? That would be the Western U.S., maybe you could move into the other mansion neighboring Hef. </span></div><div class="yiv98802265msonormal" style="color: black; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><br />
</div><div class="yiv98802265msonormal" style="color: black; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt;">What if others criticize this idea (are they jealous)? Explain that underlying this master plan are the best of intentions: you see the economic recovery is weakening and you want to do your part to help (how thoughtful)! You should be commended for your ingenuity, for your long-term plan to reallocate wealth to sectors of the economy (like housing) that are suffering. Get ready, get set, GO.</span></div><div class="yiv98802265msonormal" style="color: black; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><br />
</div><div class="yiv98802265msonormal" style="color: black; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt;">(National Association of Home Builders)</span></div>Dee Moneyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02892839688150904558noreply@blogger.com0